MyDD :: House open seat rundown

California 22 - Bill Thomas (R) retiring after 14 terms

Thomas chairs the Ways and Means Committee and was the architect not only of Bush's failed Social Security plan, but of the Medicare prescription drug debacle. Yes, this is a political titan retiring. His successor will be State Assemblyman (and Minority Leader until this month) Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield. Yes, it's just that simple; McCarthy has the GOP establishment, Thomas' endorsement, money, and a district where Bush got 68%.

California 50 special election - [Duke Cunningham (R) resigned]

You should know what this race is about. A slew of Republicans are running, with the Democratic candidate certain to be 2004 nominee Francine Busby. Busby will come out on top in the April 11 open primary, but since she won't get 50% she will be forced to a runoff on June 6 (Primary Day in California) against the top vote-getting Republican, who will be either former Congressman Brian Bilbray of San Diego, businessman Eric Roach, or former State Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian of Carlsbad. Though Bush got 55% here, Busby is competitive. Polls indicate a tight race for June 6, unless Kaloogian is the GOP nominee in which case Busby has a strong lead. Give to Busby's campaign!

Colorado 5 - Joel Hefley (R) retiring after 10 terms

Hefley, a guy so conservative he's called a maverick, is out. Though "Fightin' Dem" Jay Fawcett will put up a good fight, this will stay in Republican hands, as it is the most solidly GOP district in Colorado. The GOP frontrunner could be State Senator Doug Lamborn of Colorado Springs, or former El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson. I don't know.

Colorado 7 - Bob Beauprez (R) running for Governor

This suburban Denver district is the Democrats' second-best pickup opportunity in the House, as Kerry won with 51% here. The Republican nominee will be State Education Commissioner Rick O'Donnell; the Democratic nominee will probably be former State Senator Ed Perlmutter of Golden, although former State Representative Peggy Lamm is in the race too. This should be a top-tier contest heading into November. The primary is August 8.

Florida 9 - Mike Bilirakis (R) retiring after 12 terms

Bush got something like 55% or 57% in this district north of Tampa Bay. It is strongly Republican. Though former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky may be a credible candidate, Bilirakis' son, State Representative Gus Bilirakis of Palm Harbor, will probably win in the end.

Florida 11 - Jim Davis (D) running for Governor

Davis' heavily Democratic Tampa Bay seat is open, but Democrats shouldn't be too worried as Kerry got ~58% here. By all accounts, EMILY's List-endorsed Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor (yes, daughter of Betty) is the favorite.

Florida 13 - Katherine Harris (R) running for the Senate

The Florida primaries are September 5, but it's pretty clear that whoever wins the GOP primary will win in November, as Bush got 55% here and Democrats have a very weak bench in the Sarasota area. The big money-raising is coming from Republicans Tramm Hudson and Vern Buchanan, but more moderate State Representative Nancy Detert of Venice may squeak through if Hudson and Buchanan divide the conservative vote. The main Democrats are banker Christine Jennings and 2002/2004 nominee Jan Schneider.

Hawaii 2 - Ed Case (D) running for the Senate

Case, with his quixotic primary challenge to Senator Akaka, has opened up his seat. The main Democratic candidates are State Senator Colleen Hanabusa of Waianae, former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono, State Senator Gary Hooser of Kauai, State Senator Ron Menor of Mililani, and State Representative Brian Schatz of Makiki. Hanabusa, Hirono, and Menor are Asian; Hooser and Schatz are not. All are probably more liberal than Case, who is remarkably moderate for an Hawaii Democrat. The migraine-inducing primary is on September 23, but not to fear; Kerry got a big win in this rural district.

Idaho 1 - Butch Otter (R) running for Governor

There is still no overwhelming favorite for the May 23 Republican primary, which is rare for a party as organized and lock-step as the GOP. Some may tip it to State Representative Bill Sali of Kuna, or State Senator Skip Brandt of Kooskia. In any case, the GOP primary victor will win in November without much hassle, as Bush got 68% (or was it 70%?) here.

Illinois 6 - Henry Hyde (R) retiring after 16 terms

The field is set in my own district after Tuesday's primary. State Senator Peter Roskam of Wheaton is Hyde's hand-picked heir to the throne. Roskam is a far-right conservative. Emerging from a tough Democratic field is Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth, whose speaking skills and impressive resume made her the favorite of the national party. If Duckworth can unite the Democrats, many of whom were Christine Cegelis supporters, behind her, she could very well win in this once-GOP stronghold that is trending Dem. Kerry got 47% here.

Iowa 1 - Jim Nussle (R) running for Governor

This is the best pickup opportunity we have. Kerry got 53% in this Northeast Iowa seat. Our leading contender is attorney Bruce Braley, with businessman Rick Dickinson possible as well. The Republican will probably be State Representative Bill Dix of Shell Rock, though there are other contenders. Once the primaries are settled on June 6, this will be a hotly watched race.

Maryland 3 - Ben Cardin (D) running for the Senate

Kerry got 54% in this Annapolis/Baltimore-area suburban seat, and the Democratic field is huge. I have no idea who is considered the frontrunner. I hope the massive September 12 primary sorts things out.

Minnesota 5 - Martin Sabo (D) retiring after 14 terms

Sabo's announcement last week has opened up Minnesota's safest Democratic seat, in the heart of Minneapolis. Kerry got 71% here, so expect a huge Democratic field. There will be everything from City Councilmen to County Commissioners to state legislators running. The frontrunner may well end up being a lot closer to home - Sabo's chief of staff, Mike Erlandson.

Minnesota 6 - Mark Kennedy (R) running for the Senate

This suburban/exurban district is traditionally seen as Minnesota's most conservative, so I'm not sure it should be considered competitive yet, but Democrats have two strong contenders in former Jesse Ventura cabinet member Elwyn Tinklenberg (a moderate) and 2004 nominee Patty Wetterling. The Republicans may well pick wingnut State Senator Michelle Bachmann of Stillwater, though they have other major choices too.

Nebraska 3 - Tom Osborne (R) running for Governor

This encompasses nearly all of Nebraska except for the Lincoln and Omaha areas. I'm betting on conservative State Senator Adrian Smith or Grand Island Mayor Jay Vavricek to triumph in the May 9 GOP primary. Bush got nearly 75% here.

Nevada 2 - Jim Gibbons (R) running for Governor

This district, like the previous one, is almost all of Nevada except for the Las Vegas/Henderson area. Bush got 57%, so Republicans are favored, but their August 15 primary is looking competitive between: State Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons of Reno (the Congressman's wife), State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle of Reno, and Secretary of State Dean Heller. The Democrat is State University Regent Jill Derby.

New Jersey 13 - [Bob Menendez (D) appointed to the Senate]

With Menendez a Senator running for (re)election, Governor Corzine chose to leave the seat vacant until the normal election rather than call an expensive special election in the summer (now that's fiscal responsibility). As this heavily Hispanic urban district is New Jersey's second most solidly Democratic, the June 6 primary will determine everything. Two State Assemblymen, Joseph Vas of Perth Amboy and Albio Sires of West New York (who was Speaker until January), are running. Sires, with his Hudson County base and party support, is the overwhelming favorite.

New York 11 - Major Owens (D) retiring after 12 terms

This urban Brooklyn seat gave Kerry something like 85%, so it ain't going Repub, but the September 12 primary will be wild. We have State Senator Carl Andrews, two NYC Councilmen (Yvette Clark and David Yassky), activist Chris Owens (the Congressman's son), and State Assemblyman Nick Perry. All candidates except Yassky are African-American. I would be rooting for Owens except that I don't like nepotism.

New York 24 - Sherwood Boehlert (R) retiring after 12 terms

Along with Arizona 8, Colorado 7, Iowa 1, and Ohio 6, this is one of the few open seats with an actual chance of flipping. This upstate district is traditionally Republican but is trending Democratic (Kerry got 48% and Boehlert was a "moderate"). It looks like State Senator Ray Meier of Utica will be the GOP anointee, while Oneida County D.A. Mike Arcuri is the Democratic favorite.

Ohio 4 - Mike Oxley (R) retiring after 12 full terms

Just as Kevin McCarthy, Gus Bilirakis, and Peter Roskam are handpicked Republican establishment "heirs apparent", State Senator Jim Jordan of Urbana is. Unlike Roskam, but like McCarthy, he is a total shoo-in; Bush got something approaching 65% here.

Ohio 6 - Ted Strickland (D) running for Governor

After State Senator Charlie Wilson of St. Clairsville's ballot screw-up, this is chaos. This rural Ohio district went for Bush 50-49 but is traditionally conservative Democratic, and Wilson was the favorite, but now...well, anyway. State House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel of East Liverpool will win the GOP nomination on May 2, but what will happen on the Dem side? Wilson must now run as a write-in. Can he get enough people to write him in to win the primary and then take on Blasdel in the fall? I don't know. This is confusing. Toss-up, and if Wilson can't win the Democratic nomination, Blasdel wins in November.

Ohio 13 - Sherrod Brown (D) running for the Senate

The GOP nominee will be Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, and the Democrats...who the hell knows. Much of the media attention is on wealthy heiress Capri Cafaro, who has major baggage but major bucks, and former Congressman Tom Sawyer of Akron. Other candidates include former State Representative Betty Sutton of Chardon, Elyria Mayor Bill Grace, and Dennis Kucinich's brother. This primary is nutty, and whoever wins on May 2 will do so with less than 35% of the vote. Meanwhile, Foltin's popularity in a blue city could be very tough in November. Kerry got 56% here, but don't call it for the Dems yet, given this California-sized primary crowd.

Oklahoma 5 - Ernest Istook (R) running for Governor

The Republican field in this Oklahoma City-based seat is between two current State Representatives, one former State Representative, and the Lieutenant Governor, Mary Fallin. Democrats don't stand a chance as long as former Lieutenant Governor Jack Mildren doesn't run.

Tennessee 1 - Bill Jenkins (R) retiring after 5 terms

The Republican field in East Tennessee should crowd up soon, as the primary is on August 3 and there are plenty of well-known GOPers here. The current frontrunner may be State Senator David Davis of Johnson City (who looks creepy, no offense). Oh, and Dems won't win - this district hasn't elected a Democrat to Congress since the 1870's or so.

Tennessee 9 - Harold Ford (D) running for the Senate

For the first time since 1972, Memphis may elect a non-Ford to Congress, although one Ford is running. Shelby County Commissioner Julian Bolton and attorney Nikki Tinker are strong contenders though. I guess we'll find out on August 3 which young, ambitious black Democrat gets to reign. Kerry got ~70% here.

Vermont At Large - Bernie Sanders ("I") running for the Senate

Democrat, oh, sorry, Independent Bernie Sanders is a shoo-in for the Senate race, but this may be a little tougher. State Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch may be favored, but Adjutant General Martha Rainville may be a tough Republican candidate. Vermont voted 59-40 for Kerry, so Welch still has the edge, but Governor Douglas' (R) popularity could help Rainville.

And finally...

Wisconsin 8 - Mark Green (R) running for Governor

This Green Bay-based seat is traditionally Republican, but elected a Democrat to Congress the last time it was open (1996). Kerry also got 45%. The Democratic candidate could be former Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum, businessman Jamie Wall, or rich physician Steve Kagen. The Republican heir to the throne is State Assembly Speaker John Gard of Peshtigo.